So, what’s the takeaway here? Judging by the sample size, you can see that running backs are having shorter and shorter careers (see sample size), with many falling off after that age-28 season. It does highlight that there is less of a drop-off at age 28, though it’s important to remember that only the best of the best play into that territory, which can slightly inflate the numbers. We have what I’d call a solid sample size of data from age-22 to age-29, but it’s a bit too small to form any concrete opinions outside of there. Upside can mean one thing and there are only certain players who can reach top-five potential, but what about finishing in the top 12? Do the numbers look any better for the aging running backs in this area? Sample Some players who are over that barrier in 2021 include David Johnson, Giovani Bernard, and Latavius Murray. The only others to accomplish this in the 14-year sample size were Thomas Jones (No. 4 running back in Le’Veon Bell‘s absence in 2015, and 30-year-old Adrian Peterson finished No. The last running backs who finished top-five after the age of 28 were 32-year-old DeAngelo Williams, who finished as the No. It seems like the trend of aging running backs falling off continually gets worse. The running backs who are quickly approaching the steep drop-off in elite production include Derrick Henry (27), Aaron Jones (27), Kenyan Drake (27), Chris Carson (27), Todd Gurley (27), Melvin Gordon (28), and Mike Davis (28). Sure, there’s a blip on the radar at 28, which tells us that not every 28-year-old needs to be avoided, but you’d better make sure he’s a can’t-miss player if selecting him near the first round. This chart also shows a steep drop-off once a running back hits his age-27 season. This year’s class of rookies includes Najee Harris (23 years old), Travis Etienne (22), Javonte Williams (21), Michael Carter (22), and Trey Sermon (22). It’s why you should never fault a running back for exiting college the miles on their bodies are limited. If there’s a running back coming out of college early, his ceiling is as high as anyone’s. Nearly 10 percent of 21-year-old running backs have finished as a top-five fantasy running back. If you’ve listened to the FantasyPros Football Podcast, you now know why I try to explain that running backs are in their prime the moment they enter the league. Maybe even more importantly, it identifies when they’re most valuable. Is there a player falling down draft boards due to his age and perceived drop-off? Just how young are some running backs who’ve finished top-five? This chart identifies when a player may lose some of that elite potential. When drafting a player in the early rounds, you want to ensure they can not only live up to their draft position, but hopefully exceed it. Here are the links to the study on other positions: After removing the players with less than 50 touches, we’re left with a total of 1,089 individual seasons, more than enough for a conclusion. The running back must have had 50 or more touches to be included in the sample, as this will eliminate players who never get a shot at a young age, and those who fizzled out of the league after a few years. I’ve accumulated a 14-year sample size with only one requirement to be included. The only way to test whether this was true was to go through a large sample size of data. Most know it’s a young man’s game, but what if there’s an aging running back still on an NFL roster who’s expected to get the majority of touches (these are becoming increasingly rare by the year)? Most believe that those who have produced at an advanced age are just outliers, but I’m not the type to just accept things as they are without doing research, so I wanted to see if the fantasy results matched what everyone essentially believes. Today, we’ll talk about the running back position. We’ll go position-by-position to answer that question, as it varies. When does a fantasy player stop producing like an elite option? When does he stop offering top-12 upside? Top-24? You’ve stumbled upon the correct article. When I became a full-time analyst and had time to research things like this, I wanted to give you concrete answers. What would they have to gain by telling you a player falls off a cliff at a certain age? I mean, why would anyone want to lie to you? One of those things was the age that fantasy players stop producing. There are things you’re told when you start playing fantasy football that you believe to be true.
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